Population Estimates for Super Output Areas (SOAs) and former Electoral Wards, Northern Ireland

Population estimates relate to the population as of 30th June each year, and therefore are often referred to as mid-year estimates. They are used to allocate public funds to the Northern Ireland Executive through the Barnett formula and are widely used by Northern Ireland government departments for the planning of services, such as health and education.

These statistics are also of interest to those involved in research and academia. They are widely used to express other statistics as a rate, and thus enable comparisons across the United Kingdom and other countries.

Furthermore, population estimates form the basis for future population statistics such as population projections.

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Creation Date janvāris 19, 2018, 12:15 (UTC)
Topic Category Society
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These statistics present mid-year population estimates for areas within Northern Ireland by gender and broad age bands.

Variables:

Geo_Name: refers to an area.

Geo_Code: refers to the code associated with the area. (e.g. 95AA01S1 refers to Aldergrove_1).

Mid_Year_Ending: Population estimates refer to the number of people in the population at 30th June each year.

Gender: Population estimates are provided for Males, Females and All Persons.

Age_Group: The population estimates are categorised into four broad age bands. ‘All ages’ has also been incorporated into the age variable by aggregating the four age groups. 0-15 16-39 40-64 65 and over (65+) All Ages.

Population_Estimate: refers to the estimated population size.
Frequency of Update Annually
Contact Name NISRA – Demographic Statistics
Contact Email census@nisra.gov.uk
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Population estimates at the Northern Ireland level are created using the cohort-component method. This method updates the Census estimates by ‘ageing on’ populations and applying information on births, deaths and migration.

Population estimates for areas within Northern Ireland are created from an average of the cohort-component method and the ratio change method. The ratio change method calculates the population change by applying observed changes in secondary (typically administrative) data sources to Census estimates.

Further methodological information can be found in the methodology paper for mid-year population estimates for Northern Ireland: https://www.nisra.gov.uk/sites/nisra.gov.uk/files/publications/Methodology-2020.pdf

Estimates are produced using a variety of data sources and statistical models. Therefore small estimates should not be taken to refer to particular individuals. Further information is available in the Limitations section of the statistical bulletin: https://www.nisra.gov.uk/sites/nisra.gov.uk/files/publications/MYE20-Bulletin.pdf
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